And here were the Daily Express screaming “Snow chaos”

Yesterday morning the UK Met Office named the low pressure system that had been talked about for a while as a potential snowmaker “Storm Arwen” (a name of Welsh descent meaning “noble maiden” and given to the character of the same name in the “Lord of the Rings” series) and as soon as it was, focus shifted from snow to wind.

UK Weather Warning Map

Within hours of the storm being named, yellow warnings for wind, rain and snow (low level impacts) for most of Scotland and the west of the United Kingdom, some of these have been upgraded to amber (There is an increased likelihood of impacts from severe weather, which could potentially disrupt your plans) and for the coasts of eastern Scotland as well as the North East of England a red alert (It is very likely that there will be a risk to life) has been issued turning “Oh, its going to snow” into “batten down the hatches, matey, it be a bad one!”

The British fascination with all things wintry

We Brits seem to have a bit of a love / hate relationship when it comes to the subject of snow. As soon as October comes around, newspapers instantly start wishing for the white stuff with headlines such as “Coldest winter in a century on way” or “-12°C Britain faces snow chaos”. When there is a suggestion of snow in the forecast, the reporting ramps up a gear with headlines such as “Screaming Northerlies to bring winter hell THIS WEEK!”, then when it actually comes along comes the hate side of the relationship.

“SNOW CAUSES BIN COLLECTION BACKLOG” in local newspapers when people suddenly find out that the binmen are also the people who drive the gritting lorries, “GOING SNOWHERE” when people discover that even the slightest amount of snow in the United Kingdom is enough to bring major transport infrastructure to a grinding halt and of course “SNOW CHAOS : And they still claim its global warming” from newspapers who have an extreme right wing agenda that refuses to recognise climate change.

So why do I mention this now? It’s because a lot of models are now talking about a snow event starting at midnight GMT on November 25th as a polar low forms in the North Sea which over the next three days brings a collection of snow showers (dumping snow over the Scottish Highlands, Pennines, Snowdonia and the Brecon Beacons) and as you might expect the media are hyping it up as per usual, therefore you will be pleased to hear that if it does snow, I shall be posting information which is not hyperbole, but actual recordings and photographs.

Oh, and a word of warning, if anyone comes from the Daily Express asking for a comment, run like the plague.

A collection of Daily Express headlines on snow

The Return of an Old Friend

For the last couple of days, Scotland has been living up to its status as a hard and biting land with some areas having seen six inches of snowfall (which thanks to the winds up there has been drifting) and causing traffic problems (as seen here)

Drifting Snow in the Scottish Highlands

However, for Scotland, this is an annual occurance and of no great consequence to the rest of the United Kingdom, starting today however it will become of consequence to the United Kingdom as this chart demonstrates:

Windchill Forecast for the next five days

The second “Beast from the East” in three years has started today and will see the whole of the United Kingdom experience below freezing windchills with the eastern coast experencing windchills as low as -10°C (14°F) and if you are unlucky enough to live in the mountains (where any precipation will fall as snow and settle) windchills could range from -14°C (7°F) to -18°C (0°F) and there is even a suggestion that here in coastal Western Wales we could get an inch of lying snow (and that’s after the protection of the Cambrians)

So in the next few days do not be suprised if you see headlines like these from this side of the pond on your evening news broadcasts and remember the only reason is that London and the South East is having to experience what Scotland experiences every winter

Boxing Day Traditions in the United Kingdom

The day after Christmas Day is called Boxing Day in the United Kingdom, named, not because people went around to other people’s houses drunk from all the sherry drunk the previous day and roar “Do you want some?” before delivering a right hook, but because in the Victorian era it was the day that boxes of gifts were given to the servants in the house.

As a result there are a large number of things that happen on Boxing Day that could only happen in the United Kingdom including: regulated gatherings of people on horseback to take part in largely ceremonial hunts (regulated in the United Kingdom since 2005), stores holding sales where items are reduced by up to 75% and especially since the 1990’s, storms.

The first one of note was on Boxing Day 1998 which made landfall in north western Ireland with winds peaking at 65mph (making it in American terms a Cat 1 hurricane). This was followed in 2010 by the thaw storm, that turned a month of sub zero temperatures (leading to records being broken all over the country) into a generally speaking dismal December day, then you had Storm Erich in 2013 which saw parts of Wales receive Cat 3 hurricane strength gusts and this year is no exception as Storm Bella will cross the country over the course of the day

BBC Weather Report about Storm Bella

Forget the “October Surprise”, the Atlantic Hurricane Season is about to deliver an August Surprise

The Republican Party must hate the Atlantic Hurricane season with a vengeance.

In 2008, the convention (being held in Minneapolis / St. Paul) found itself on the forecast track for Hurricane Gustav.

In 2012, the convention (held in Tampa, Florida) has its first day curtailed because of Tropical Storm Issac which saw the convention chairman call the Convention to order, explain what was happening, and then start a clock showing the American national debt before placing the convention in recess ten minutes later.

And now in 2020, Hurricane Laura (as will be) and Hurricane Marco are both forecast to make landfall no further than 400 miles from each other within a timescale of 60 hours which (although I have only been focused on hurricanes since 2003) has to be the closest two landfalling hurricanes have landed and the shortest amount of time between them.

Hurricane Laura Forecast Track

Hurricane Marco Forecast Track

I am so glad that Weather Together is working again

because, boy, do we need it

This forecast map generated by WXCharts (a Met Desk product) shows the end result of a storm that is forecast to form on Sunday morning at 6.00am GMT (1.00am EST) off the coast of North Carolina where, thanks to a supercharged jet stream travelling at over 200 knots (245mph), the storm will experience not one, not two, SIX periods of explosive cyclogenesis (where the central pressure drops by more than 24mb in a 24 hour period) and arrive in the UK producing sustained Cat 1 hurricane winds and Cat 2 hurricane gusts of over 100mph making it the most damaging storm ever to hit the UK since the “Great Hurricane of 1987”.

However, the BBC (unlike then) have raised concerns and even mentioned the fact that something could happen in yesterday’s seven day forecast (which is updated every twenty four hours and broadcast on the BBC News Channel at 9.55pm GMT daily).

And on the subject of hurricanes

Scotland to take legal action if Typhoon Hagibis forces cancellation

The Rugby World Cup (being hosted by Japan) was awarded to the nation back in 2009. In the time since that decision was made, Japan has seen landfalling hurricanes between September and November on the following occasions:

2009: Melor
2010: Malou, Meranti
2011: Talas, Roke
2012: Jelawat
2013: Toraji, Man-yi, Danas, Wipha
2014: Fung-Wong, Phanfone, Vongfong
2015: Etau
2016: Namtheun, Malou, Malakas, Chaba
2017: Talim, Lan, Saola
2018: Jebi, Trami, Kong-rey

If you are telling me that World Rugby (the organisers) did not have a backup plan for matches being cancelled due to landfalling typhoons then WHAT THE HECK WERE THEY PLAYING AT SINCE 2009???

I think it is high time we had a serious discussion about hurricanes in the UK

Members will know that I have long said that just because a hurricane loses it’s tropical status, the National Hurricane Centre shouldn’t forget about it and given the most recent forecast track by the Centre I think this bears saying again

cone graphic

Yes, your eyes are not deceiving you. That is an official National Hurricane Centre forecast track (published at 9.00am UTC this morning) indicating that at 7.00pm BST tomorrow evening, a minimum category one hurricane will make landfall in the Republic of Ireland (the first time since Hurricane Debbie in 1961). With this forecast track, the various weather media in the United Kingdom are going to have to face facts. Hurricanes, especially in the post climate changed world, will make landfall ANYWHERE and that includes the United Kingdom.

Second Quarter Temperature Record for Llanrhystud

(Data Source: Netatmo Temperature Guage kindly supplied by Nathan)

Maximum Maximum
Apr 22.6°C (Apr 23)
May 20.1°C (May 14th)
Jun 26.1°C (June 28th)

Maximum Minimum
Apr 15.3°C (Apr 23)
May 18.2°C (May 31st)
Jun 17.3°C (June 28th)

Minimum Maximum
Apr 7.9°C (Apr 3)
May 12.5°C (May 9th)
Jun 12.9°C (June 11th)

Minimum Minimum
Apr 4.6°C (April 3rd)
May 4.6°C (May 5th)
Jun 8.5°C (June 10th)

In the spirit of open data, I invite people more expert in the analysis of temperatures to use this data in the following context

Average Temperature Aberporth
April: Average Maximum 13°C Average Minimum 4°C
May: Average Maximum 16°C Average Minimum 7°C
June: Average Maximum 18°C Average Minimum 9°C